In the first few weeks of 2025, what are the key emerging trends affecting the top-tier legal market in London, and what does it mean for a mid-level associate?
2025 M&A outlook
Reading the individual leading law firms' 2025 M&A Outlooks in January is always interesting. A summary of these can once again be condensed into the evergreen phrase, ‘cautious optimism’.
There are recurring positive themes amongst them all:
- Improving economic conditions, with inflation and interest rates coming down, allowing for an improved M&A environment
- The need for private equity investments to be realised and ‘dry powder’ deployed
- The AI revolution, emerging technologies, and energy transition driving M&A
Tempered by:
- An uncertain geopolitical environment
After a subdued 2023 and 2024, there are positive indications that the modest uptick in M&A, which gathered pace in H2 of 2024, may gain a little more momentum in H1 of 2025.
What does this mean for the mid-level associate at this crucial point of their career?
The effect is that transactional practice areas can expect a busier year in 2025 than last. Those firms that lead within the private capital sector perhaps expect to be extremely busy. The signs that this is already the case this year are reflected in how much busier the recruitment market is this January compared to January 2024.
There are ample M&A associate opportunities across the leading City law firms, and this is likely to increase. If you are an ambitious associate and have reason to believe you are not in the right team to meet those ambitions, then you are likely to find a receptive recruitment market that will allow you to find the right platform.
Trump presidency 2.0
With a slew of executive orders in his first week, Trump’s second term as President of the United States started as he said it would. The US economy, already on a strong footing, is expected to grow, and there is an expectation among the leading law firms for a busy deals market. Our New York office is already seeing recruitment processes pick up speed in January compared to Q42024, which bodes well for a dynamic recruitment market.
Trump’s threat of trade tariffs with Canada, Mexico, the EU, and China has not come to fruition yet, but the de-globalisation trend will surely continue following his first term and the Biden presidency. The expectation is for a negative effect on global growth. This will, of course, affect the UK.
However, the investment US firms have made in the London legal market will surely continue as they take an ever-larger slice of the leading UK law firms’ pie. US firms are here for the high-margin, big-ticket M&A work, and the power of the dollar will not change. The trajectory seems clear. With US private capital so prevalent in London and Europe, US law firms see New York and London as one ecosystem, and the Trump presidency is unlikely to change this.
We can therefore expect an attractive recruitment market for top-tier associates who want to be better compensated for the hours they are working or to work at the very top of the market within transactional practice areas.
A bumper year for strategic partner moves in 2024
With well over 500 moves in London in 2024, it was a record year for partner hiring. US firms were particularly active, especially those teams servicing the private capital sector. With an expected continuation of the pick-up in M&A activity, firms invested heavily in securing the talent they need to take advantage of an improving market.
This movement creates a more active recruitment market for mid-tier associates, and we are already seeing a far busier January in 2025 than we did this time last year. A more competitive associate recruitment market allows a mid-level associate more choice and bargaining power. 2025 should bring about a recruitment market with some of the power shifting back to the associate considering their options. In recent years, due to macroeconomic headwinds, hiring firms could move slowly through a recruitment process.
Are you a mid-level associate looking to take advantage of these trends? Reach out to us today to discuss how we can help you find the right opportunity to elevate your career in 2025.
